MLB: Big Series Brewing in Milwaukee
It seems almost impossible to believe, two division rivals with over a 100 games played on the season
2008-07-29
It seems almost impossible to believe, two division rivals with over a 100 games played on the season, would be meeting in one of the team’s ball parks for the first time all year. Yet this is exactly what is happening in Milwaukee, as the Brewers, one game back in the standings in the NL Central, welcome the Chicago Cubs for the initial time in 2008, in a four game series.
The Brewers have made the trip south twice to Wrigley Field; winning four of six this year and can make a pronounced statement with a series win and take over first place in the division. Chicago is only 4-7 (-4.35 units) in last 11, with the offense to blame for lackluster performances, scoring two or less runs in eight of the contests. Having to venture to Miller Park to solve what ails the slumping Cubs is not the best situation, having lost 13 of last 19 on the road.
Milwaukee had eight game winning streak snapped Friday and potentially was looking past Houston to this super-sized series, dropping two of three to the Astros. Manager Ned Yost’s club is 22-12 against the money line after having lost two of their last three games this season.
The Chicago Cubs have tried to start fast in new series with 16-6 mark in last 22 Game One’s. This has been ultra-critical when these division rivals meet, as the opening game winner has won the last six series and is 9-1-1 in last 11 meetings between these clubs.
C.C. Sabathia (10-8, 3.30, 1.152 WHIP) has been even better than Milwaukee could have hoped for, with 4-0 record in a Brewers uniform and 1.36 ERA. The big left-hander has won seven straight, dating back to pitching for Cleveland. Sabathia has been a work-horse also, with three consecutive complete games, the first time this has occurred for pitcher in a Milwaukee uniform since 1994, when Cal Eldred was hurling in Brew Town.
Chicago, faced with this challenge, is a +155 road underdog and will start Ted Lilly (10-6, 4.49, 1.340) in a battle of left-handers. Lilly and the Cubs have won six of last seven Game 1 assignments and are 5-2 when in the role of underdog. Chicago has enjoyed success against top line pitchers, with 8-3 record versus starters with WHIP of 1.150 or less.
Both teams have pounded out success against lefties, with Milwaukee 22-11 and the Cubs 19-11. Sportsbook.com, besides having the Brew Crew as solid favorites, have total listed at 7.5 and Milwaukee is 35-16 at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Lou Pinella’s club is 1-9 in last 10 underdog roles and hapless 2-12 when facing a home team with .600 or better home winning percentage. With the North Siders 3-12 in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters, they will have to hope Sabathia has reoccurrence of the past, as he is 12-29 vs. teams outscoring opposition by one or more runs a game on the season. (Teams Record)
These matchups are always entertaining and will be able to seen in local markets or on MLB.TV starting at 8:05 Eastern. It doesn’t happen often, however when the total is this low, Milwaukee is 8-0 OVER at home when the number is 7.5 or less over the last three seasons.
StatFox Power Line – Milwaukee -137
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